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I have been reading on SVB to figure out what happened and why? It's important to me for two reasons: 1) I'm an investor (not in SIVB). Always be learning! 2) I'm a customer (of SVB), which directly impacts us (not critical). Let's dive in!  Interest Rates (Part I)SVB had a bunch of bonds. Those bonds' values declined as the interest rate went up. That's just what bonds do. SVB could have held the bonds and gotten paid the coupon value at maturity. But instead, SVB sold tons of bonds at a loss! WHY? RevenueLook at the last earnings results slide (attached). Does it look like a company that goes out of biz in 2 days?
So why did it sell tons of bonds at a loss and raise money? 
Interest Rates (Part II)You need to know that lots of the banks' customers started moving their cash to interest-bearing accounts, which means higher costs for SVB. According to SVB, each % point decrease in non-interest-bearing deposits would reduce its net interest income by $3M. In summary:
Didn't SVB have cash on the balance sheet? Balance SheetThe company targeted $7-$11B in cash. GOOD
It also had $117B Corp bonds, T Bills, Municipal bonds: GOOD Really, Good? If you have $117B in securities, why do you need to raise $2.2B, which started the SVB collapse this week? Embrace yourself... 
Interest Rates (Part III)Context: banks hold their securities in two buckets: Available to Sales (AFS) and Hold to Maturity (HTM). With HTM, if the value of your securities goes down, you don't take any loss on the balance sheet. It's held to maturity. With AFS, you take the loss on the balance sheet if the value goes down. As the interest rate increased, the value of those lovely "secure" assets SVB held dropped rapidly. Technically, any bank can be insolvent, but the balance sheet doesn't show. Now, we hit the real story! My educated guess: SVB realized that with the deposits not coming as fast, VCs not investing, everyone wanting interest & their assets losing value by the minute, they may be insolvent. What to do:
GOOD? No! Market Phycology & MechanicsMarket Psychology
The madness began, and market mechanics took over:
Some Observations (3/10/2023)That's what I have learned so far. Thanks for reading! Things may change, and new information may impact my conclusions. Here are some observations and lessons:
Hope you found this helpful! Fortune favors the intelligent! Hoda, Founder and CEO of StockCrd.io  Welcome to 2023! What's your investing resolution for the new year? Here are some tips to help you get started: 1. Set clear financial goals for the year.Whether it's saving for a down payment on a house or growing your retirement savings, having specific targets will help you stay on track. 2. Don't let your emotions drive your investment decisions.It's easy to get caught up in the excitement of hot stocks or panic when the market dips. But research shows that a long-term, diversified investment strategy is the best way to grow wealth. 3. Take advantage of tools and resources to help you make informed decisions.Many websites, apps, and other resources can help you research and track your investments. Don't be afraid to use them! 4. Seek out new investment opportunities. Don't be afraid to branch out and try new things. Expanding your horizons can lead to new opportunities and higher returns, whether it's a new sector, a different asset class, or a new investment strategy. 5. Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint.Keep going if you see immediate results. Building wealth takes time, but you can achieve your financial goals with patience and persistence. So make this the year you improve your investing skills and remember all your life as the year you made the best investment decisions. And, when you are ready, Stock Card can help you achieve your new year investing resolution in four ways:
💲 To get you started on your resolution, we offer a 50% off limited-time promotion. Insert the promo code "2023adventure" when subscribing to VIP. The only catch is that this offer only lasts until the end of January 1st, 2023! Terms: You must insert promo code "2023adventure" in the promo code box. The offer is valid until the end of Jan. 1st, 2023. Your subscription auto-renews if you do not cancel during the subscription period. The 50% discount is only valid for new VIP users and applies to your subscription's first year or month, depending on your plan.
Many of our users at Stock Card love investing in the companies shaping the future of humanity. Artificial intelligence, 5G technologies, and gene-editing are some of the most researched themes and collections on our platform. We support our users in their quest to invest in the future by maintaining a comprehensive database of growth potential across thousands of industries and markets. Such databases power the first box on Stock Cards' 2X2s, and our Head of LiveOps, Shama Patwardhan, is the steward of this database. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, Shama took on the challenge of digesting the pandemic's impact on its potential. In this blog post, she discusses the result of her learnings and the adjustments we are applying to Stock Card's growth potential database.
What happened in the first quarter of 2020?
Currently, the world is going through a rare phenomenon. One contagious virus brought the whole world to a standstill. COVID-19 virus, also called Coronavirus, was first detected in November 2019 in China and spread globally. The first case of Coronavirus in the U.S. was found in January 2020. By mid-March, all the global economies came to a screeching halt. The properties of the virus made it more difficult to contain or monitor. The majority of businesses, manufacturing facilities, global travel, and retail operations shut down. Consecutively, panic ensued as the uncertainty about jobs and daily normalcy created growing anxiety. Governments around the world announced a "shelter-in-place" policy, and cities around the world resemble apocalyptic scenes of empty streets. There was no hum to the engine of the world's economy.
How did the world's growth get impacted?
The impact of the Coronavirus outbreak was felt differently by different industries and businesses. Some markets, such as airlines and cruises, were struck severely that the companies' survival in those sectors was and is still doubtful. On the other hand, some markets, like pharmaceuticals and digital communications, experienced a surge in demand, well-above the most optimistic forecasts before the COVID-19 pandemic. Such extreme and unexpected negative and positive impacts created the need to review the growth rates and potential of the markets, sectors, and industries that power Stock Cards, and modify them such that they represent a more informed state of forecasted growth.
Hardest hit industries: The decline in demand has severely burnt several industries. Due to the "shelter-in-place" rule, people stepped out of their houses only for essential shopping needs. This change in consumer behavior affected has hit some of the industries the most:
Highest positive impact: While some industries struggled to survive, some could barely satisfy the explosive demands for their products. Among several sectors and industries, some are benefited from an extraordinary surge in demand. Here are a few examples:
Adjustments to Stock Card's growth potential database
Stock Card's growth potential database typically includes three to five years of forecasted growth potential figures for each sector, industry, and market. However, due to the varied near-term impact of the Coronavirus outbreak, we added a new one-year projection to the database for 2020, to incorporate the effect of the impact. We applied short-term adjustment by first short-listing all the sectors, industries, and core markets negatively or positively affected by the outbreak. We then applied the appropriate adjustment factor to each one.
COVID-19 Impact Adjustment Factor
We started the process by quantifying the impact of a partial shutdown across sectors and industries. Researchers at George Mason University studied how the level of digitalization can be used to calculate and quantify the impact of COVID-19 on industries and sectors. The higher the digitalization, the lower the impact. Using the results of this research, a penalty of 2.78% for high-digitalization industries and a penalty of 5.56% for low-digitalization industries can quantify the impact of COVID-19 on sectors, industries, and markets.
Additionally, to incorporate the impact of social distancing on profoundly impacted industries, we took an additional adjustment. We reduced the resultant CAGR from the previous step by industry-specific projected decline percentage. We short-listed the markets that are profoundly impacted by social distancing such as airlines and restaurants and applied an additional adjustment factor to account for the impact. As of May 29th, 2020, we have calculated the rate based on a 3-month partial shutdown assumption. The above two-step process resulted in a new short-term growth rate database to power Stock Card's growth potential bucket on our iconic 2X2s. Throughout 2020, we will monitor the state and the progress of the reopening of the economy. We would be revising this COVID-19 growth potential figures based on how many months the partial shutdown continues. We assumed that the new growth rates are applicable for at least one year until the economies resume their previous performance level.
The new 2020 growth potential database
The final result is a new 2020 growth potential database that we are pushing live on June 1st, 2020. The outbreak negatively impacted approximately 50 industries, and another 30 reported an unusual surge in demand. You would see the results by visiting any Stock Card page and clicking on the first bucket of any of the 2X2s. The video below shows how you can get to the revised growth of potential data on Stock Cards.
Sources
Industries and Markets affected by COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a toll on many sectors across the globe. The real estate sector is one of the hard-hit areas of the economy. As restaurants, bars, retail stores, and offices shut down around the world, landlords, property owners, and property management companies are going through an extended period of declining revenues. It is no surprise that the S&P 500 Global REIT index has fallen more than 30% since the middle of February 2020. In regular times, REITs (Real Estate Income Trusts) are some of the most popular types of securities investors hold for their abundant and reliable dividend income. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many REITs' investors to question the reliability of investing in REITs. In this blog post, we share a list of reliable REITs worthy of attention despite the COVID-19 impact.  Aren't all REITs reliable? When we published the COVID-19 investment resources, we discussed not every company can survive the COVID-19 pandemic. Those with ample cash and access to capital and manageable debt have the highest likelihood of going through the COVID-19 economic crisis and coming out of it ready to take off. The same logic applies to REITs. Not all REITs are worth your investment dollars. Some REITs have the operational strengths that can survive through the economy's cycles and keep rewarding the investors with a reliable source of income. How to find Reliable REITs? There are 335 REITs listed on the main U.S. stock exchanges. In the first step, we wanted to get rid of those with massive liabilities and debt. REITs with high-interest expenses compared to their earnings (EBIT) are the worrisome bunch. Companies with debt have to be able to cover the interest expense of their debt using their earnings. Just by using that as criteria, nearly two-thirds of REITs are out of the list. To make the search for reliable REITs even more precise, we applied a few additional filters:
Those criteria are pretty standard for evaluating companies with strong balance sheets. However, there is one data point that is particularly important for assessing REITs. For a non-REIT dividend-paying stock, typically, investors look at the stock's payout ratio. This ratio refers to the percentage of the company's earnings that is used to fund dividends. When such a rate goes above 70% to 80%, it is seen as a red flag. All companies need to reinvest a portion of their earnings to grow, and it's not an operationally savvy idea to borrow money to pay dividends. Therefore, the dividend payout ratio is an indicator of the sustainability of the dividend payment in the future. If a company uses almost all of its earnings to pay dividends, or worst, if it uses funds beyond its profits to fund its dividend payments, the sustainability of the dividend payment is questionable. The same logic applies to REITs. However, the usual payout ratio is not the right way of measuring the sustainability of a REIT's dividend. Best Brokerage for Dividend Investors
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What is a FFO payout ratio? Being in the business real estate, a REIT has a high depreciation cost. This cost is purely an accounting-driven number, and it is not an actual cash expense. Companies use depreciation to "expense" the initial capital they invest in acquiring the real estate over a few years. This accounting practice allows investment in real estate to be worthwhile by reducing the nominal earnings of the property or landowner and giving the owner significant savings in the amount of income tax that is calculated using the company's earnings. Because of this accounting practice, the earnings of a REIT are artificially (of course, legally) underestimated. Consequently, you cannot blame a REIT for having a high payout ratio and use it as a reason to skip investing in it. Instead, REIT investors look at FFO per share (Funds from Operations per share) and use that as a replacement for the earnings per share to calculate the company's payout ratio. Accordingly, we used the FFO payout ratio in our search for reliable REITs. That adjustment in our screening process resulted in an additional 20 or so REITs that are reliable but would have been rejected if we used the standard calculations of the payout ratio. Final results  Once we applied all the above-mentioned filters, the final results were a list of 32 REITs most likely reliable enough to go through the COVID-19 pandemic or any other economic crisis and come out of it without the need to cut their dividends. The list is available to all Stock Card users on the Discover page using the "Reliable REITs" tag. You can access it by creating a free account on Stock Card.
Waiting for the stock market to reach its bottom, before starting to invest, is a mythical pursuit. Our fellow StockCardians, since the start of the COVID-19 market crash, everyone is looking for the bottom. Many investors are waiting on the side until the market hits bottom before they invest. Of course, finding the bottom is a logical and intellectually satisfying strategy. However, in practice, finding the precise day or week that the market reaches its bottom and starts its recovery is mostly a mythical pursuit. In this long-form blog post, we'd like to share our approach in dealing with the COVID-19 market crash. Moreover, we will discuss the ways Stock Card can help you to invest during the COVID-19 crash. As always, if you have questions and comments, ping us on Intercom on our website, or send us an email. Our email is admin@stockcard.io. Let's get to our guide to investing during COVID-19 ...  Background image source: Photo by CDC on Unsplash Is it time to buy? A wise man once said, and another wise man recently reminded us that "When the Time Comes To Buy, You Won't Want To." Boy, oh boy, he was right. Nothing seems right when you are pressing the "buy" button amidst a market crash. It doesn't help either that everyone is screaming at you to stay away from the stock market. These days investing in the stock market feels very uncomfortable. Despite that, is it time to buy now? The short answer is, probably yes, with a few considerations. However, the short answer doesn't help much. Let's get to the long answer and hash things out. Making investment decisions is a probabilistic decision-making process by nature. You would invest less when the odds of gaining outsized returns are not in your favor, such as the entire 2019. In contrast, you get more aggressive when the odds of success are in your favor. My fellow Stockcardians, the odds of investment success are in your favor simply because the stock market is sprinkled with reasonably priced stocks. We recognize the boldness of the statement we are making in this post. There is no guarantee that the stock prices will go up from here. And, a few years from now, with the benefit of hindsight, we may see that investing now wasn't the best choice, and we could have waited for a few more months and gotten even better deals. But, we don't have a crystal ball that can show us the future, neither does anyone else. All we can see now is a stock market full of undervalued stocks that we would have invested in them even at 20% to 30% higher prices had COVID-19 hadn't happened. Regardless of whether the prices will continue to fall or not, the odds of success are in your favor if you invest at fair prices. Why are the odds of investment success higher now? As you know, on the Stock Card platform, we automatically collect, aggregate, and visualize the mathematical calculations that are commonly used to calculate the fair share price of a company. We use price to sales, price to earnings, price to free cash flow, and price to book value ratios, pull financial analysts' price target, use all that information to calculate companies' fair share prices, and compare them with the current prices. Those calculations show whether a stock is over or undervalued at its current market price. On Monday, April 13th, there were 6,743 companies on the Stock Card platform. Those are publicly traded companies listed on NYSE, NASDAQ, and OTC markets with a market cap of higher than $300 million. Among them, and as you can see in the below image, shares of only 2% of the listed companies were overvalued. It gets even more impressive when you compare that number to February of 2020 when nearly 6% of the companies with a market cap of higher than $300 million, listed on NYSE, NASDAQ, and OTC markets, were overvalued. When we say the odds of success are in your favor, it's because the chances that you throw a random dart at the stock market board and hit an overvalued stock was nearly three times (6% over 2%) higher back in February of 2020, compared to April 2020. Imagine how much higher the odds of success would be if you take a meticulous look at each company and make an informed decision as to whether or not to invest in it.  Background image source: Photo by CDC on Unsplash
Isn't it better to wait and see whether the market falls further? Similar to every investor out there, we'd love to invest precisely on the day that the market hit bottom. Wait ... wait ... wait ... the bottom has arrived, buy ... buy ... buy ... What a brilliant strategy, except that we don't know where and when the bottom is. If we've learned anything from the preceding 11-year bull market, we know that market forecasts are almost always wrong. We can compare the market's movement with the historical crashes all day and night and try to predict where in the cycle we are, but it wouldn't give us any more concrete answers than an informed guess. While all market crashes recover, eventually, there is no telling where we are in the cycle because every market crash happens in a different economic context. As an example, during the market crash of 2007-2009, it took the government nearly one year to come up with the $787 billion stimulus package to end the recession. The stock market started a slow descent in October 2007, with a big crash in September 2008, and the stimulus package came through only in February 2009. During the COVID-19 crash, the stock market started its descent late February 2020, and in less than two months, the stimulus cheques and loans have begun to flow through the economy. The context has changed so much, not sure for the better or worst, but a direct comparison between this market crash and any other market crashes in history is only directional correct and lacks context. And, timing the sequence of the market's movement is nearly impossible. How to invest in the stock market now? Knowing all that, how should we all invest in this period of heightened uncertainties? COVID-19's most dire impact on the economy is its unique speed. In a matter of one quarter, the demand for some sectors of the economy has fallen to nearly zero. Take airlines as an example. Compared to last year, the number of travelers going through airport TSA has fallen by 97%. Therefore, the source of immediate revenue for airlines has dried down. The situation is no better for restaurant, entertainment, or retail industries. The impact is not as drastic in other industries and sectors. However, a 20% to 30% decline in the revenue of a payment processor and credit company is not unreasonable. It's a no brainer to screen your investment universe for companies with enough cash on their balance sheet to compensate for the lack of revenue without the need to borrow money to fund the day-to-day operations. Focusing on companies with a strong balance sheet would drastically increase the odds of success in the COVID-19 era.
We built Stock Card to make your stock market research simpler, faster, and more fun.
Rules of the investment game during COVID-19 Before we wrap-up, let talk about the rule of the investment game during COVID-19. The rules are not specific to the COVID-19 market crash. However, they become even more important during a market crash. These are the fundamental rules that at Stock Card we don't cross. It is paramount to our success to draw the lines and not cross them at any cost. Here are the seven commands of COVID-19 investing to make sure the odds of success stay in your favor:
Final takeaways Without a doubt, COVID-19 has brought dismay and sadness to millions of people globally. People have lost their lives, loved ones, and their jobs. One the one hand, COVID-19 has been a disastrous situation for many people. However, there is another side to the coin. COVID-19 can also be an opportunity, especially for stock market investors.
Warren Buffett once said, he has been lucky to go through a handful of stock market crashes. The COVID-19 market crash can be your lucky opportunity to build your wealth. At Stock Card, we agree that investing at the bottom of the market crash is an excellent idea. However, we don't believe there is a way to predict the bottom. That's why we focus on investing in well-managed companies, with strong balance sheets, at fair stock prices, and we do so as often as we can. The chances are that one of those investments would land at the bottom. That would be a fantastic coincidence. However, most of our decisions will occur during other times but the bottom, and that's okay with us. As long as we take the most advantage of the fair stock prices while adhering and accepting the rules of the game (see the previous section), we feel lucky to be an investor during the COVID-19 market crash. We hope you do so too! Happy investing! Your Stock Card Team April 2020 |
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