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11/26/2017

Is the retail apocalypse near?

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Thursday morning... blue sky with a few clouds ... One of those crisp air mornings showing that life is so beautiful... A bit of sun cracking through the window warming up the whole room... I knew in a few hours the whole house will be filled with the smell of turkey roasting in the oven... butter... sage ... thyme... mmm.. mmm...mmm .... it was going to be a magnificent day... I rolled over and reached for my phone to check the time. Press the home button, swipe, turn off the 'night mode'...

Ding...Ding... Ding... Ding... Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding
What the what...? Why did I do this...? The emails are rushing in. Ding... ding... ding... the little refresh circle doesn't get a millisecond of rest... incoming emails... hundreds of them... what's so important? What's so urgent and why are there so many of them... the refresh circle is running fast ... uh oh, it's the day before Black Friday and America's retailers have no mercy ... deals after deals... the poor little refresh circle on my phone is running out of breath... downloading 498 Black Friday emails before it could even leave its night stand! Retailers are alive and sending emails! ​

​I shake off my turkey dreams...  sit up, out of the bed, looking at my computer... the investor mind takes over and asks: 'How many of these retailers do you think will be around the same time next year?' All these emails flocking in your mailbox on the day of turkey (pun intended) is a sign... a sign of a 'retail apocalypse'!
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Retail stocks have been suicidal recently. So much so that some people in Wall Street are now making their demise into an investment fund. Even in this ever-growing stock market, retailers are sliding down the slope of charts with no apparent end to their dismay... From Target to Foot Locker... from Under Armour to Nike. If you've got a presence in the malls of America, you are not doing well. There are exceptions (e.g., Home Depot), but they are few and far in between. Everybody blames it on Amazon and the shift from offline to online. The Amazon effect is such a prevailing story that any retailer that grows in online sales gets a boost of confidence from investors. For example, Walmart just got a huge share price uptake after announcing how online commerce initiatives have been growing. So what does an intelligent investor do in this situation... jump in and buy every retailer which is appearing to hold up the battle against Amazon? Or, pick up some beaten down shares in the hope of capturing some value on its way up?

Nah! We are better than that! It's not only Amazon that is killing retail. Retail in America has two illnesses: 1) The burden of debt and 2) The acute oversupply syndrome. And any intelligent investor considering to invest in retail needs to make sure not to fall into the trap of the growing online sales or a Black Friday boost as a sign of strength.
Under Armor's Stock Card
Foot Locker's Stock Card
Amazon's Stock Card
Target's Stock Card
Nike's Stock Card
  • The burden of debt: in the aftermath of the financial crisis, retailers of all shapes and sizes took massive amount debt to survive. It was fine then because the interest rate was kept low thanks to the government. However, starting from 2017 and gaining momentum in 2018, it's been time for retailers to pay back their debt as those bonds are maturing. Because interest rates are now on the way up, most of these retailers will have a hard time refinancing their debt. Expect more bankruptcies coming up in 2018.
  • The acute oversupply syndrome: you think going online is a sign of recovery by retailers and you are willing to pay top dollars for stocks such as Walmart and Target that have shown signs of eCommerce growth? Think again! The Unites States have 11X more retail space per 1000 people compared to Germany and 51X more than China, to name a few comparison. Expect more retailers to go out of business.

So on this Black Friday deal bonanza, we wanted to remind you, not to let the volume of deals and a few percentages increase in eCommerce sales fool you. We at Stock Card HQ are holding our horses to see what will happen to the retail sector as a whole before we buy or sell any retail stocks. We are keeping Under Armour and holding off to add any Walmart or Target stocks... Stay wise our fellow intelligent investors! Stay wise! 
Wrapping up the #FutureOfWorks investment theme
November was the month of the #FutureOfWork investment theme here at Stock Card HQ. In the past few weeks, we picked Adobe, American Towers, Splunk, Intel and Cognizant. Each has the capacity to shape how we will work in the future. From digital content creation to communications tower, data storage and servers, and finally to blockchain. As we wrap up the month of November, we are getting a new theme for December. Seize the opportunity and share your favorite investing theme. Some ideas we have are ready to explore such as the #FutureofPayment, the #FutureofEntertainment, or the #FutureOfHealth. That being said, we'd love to hear from you. Send us an email or submit a Stock Card request and let's find out what future-defining company is on your radar.
What's been on your radar?
As always, our community has been busy exploring new companies and stocks. Here is what has been on its radar in the past week. Click on the logo to go to the company's Stock Card:
TTM Technologies' Stock Card
Arconic's Stock Card
Blackstone's Stock Card
Alcoa's Stock Card
Paypal's Stock Card
That's it for this edition of Stock Card Weekly. Don't forget to join our Intelligent Investing Facebook Group for daily investing conversations and research.

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11/19/2017

So you've been thinking about investing in Bitcoin?

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To invest in Bitcoin, or not to invest, that's the question.
If you think you are having a hard time deciding whether investing in Bitcoin and other digital currencies is worth your dollars, then think again! One might say the banks are the ones who are worried. Their entire existence is being questioned by the hardcore fans of the new digital currency era... But, let's face it... They are not going under. Banks and financial institutions are one of the biggest investors in digital currencies... Most likely, dream of noble warriors of digital currency to overthrow the evil men in suits at best turns into a Hollywood blockbuster. The most they will get out of it is a minute of glory at the Friday night opening of 'Bitcoin warriors' the movie, starring Brad Pitt as they tell a few strangers how they have predicted the whole thing...

​So, if it's not the bank CEOs who are losing sleep over the Bitcoin craze, who is it then? The answer is the poor Chief Information / Technology Officer (CIO/CTO) of every company on earth. 
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These poor souls have not had a night of sleep since the internet became a thing. From the dawn of internet when other executives asked them 'where is our website?' to every board meeting in which they have to answer the existential question of 'why the hell we are still not in the cloud?', CIOs/CTOs now have a new thing to worry about. Introducing BLOCKCHAIN! The technology that powers Bitcoin, all other digital currencies and ICOs (also known as Initial Public Offerings). Blockchain is the new voodoo doll that CIOs/CTOs have to care for. Everyone asking them: "How could we integrate Blockchain into our stack, in a way that it doesn't disrupt our normal operations, but creates efficiency, and reduces cybersecurity threats, and helps us fluff up our thought-leadership in the media? How? How? How?"

Most CIOs/CTOs will be scratching their heads, allocating some budget to the moonshot projects within their IT departments and just use it as a mascot to say 'we are working on it!'. But, then the smarter ones who are also riding all other future-defining waves such as transitions to SaaS, transfers to Cloud, big and fast data and AI, will answer their bosses and peers with one sentence: 'Don't you worry, we are working with an IT transformation and integration services firm and we've got it covered!"
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You guessed right! November is the month of the #FutureofWork investment theme here at Stock Card HQ, and the story of Blockchain we have been telling you is all a set-up to introduce you to Cognizant (CTSH). The IT integration services company that helps hundreds of Fortune listed companies with their IT departments' adoption, transition, and transformation. And, Blockchain is one of the things they do, and they do it well!  Get to know this operationally solid company that could be sitting quietly in the corner of your portfolio for years to come, and let you profit from Blockchain, without you spending even a penny on digital currencies.
#FutureOfWork investment theme continues...
If you are new around here, every month or so, we pick a theme to explore, learn and invest in. Theme-based investing is a performance-based diversification we pursue to spread our net wide, without sacrificing performance. Traditional diversification strategies diversify your portfolio through arbitrary dimensions such as sectors or regions. Consequently, they sacrifice performance in the name of lower risk. What we do is picking major themes and trends that are on the rise, and build our portfolio around such. Not only we diversify, we also grow faster than the overall market. Here are the three most visited Stock Cards around the theme of #FutureofWork: Adobe, AMT and Splunk
​
Those are just the beginning... 
don't forget to submit your Stock Card request as you come across new companies and ideas that will shape the future...  ​
What's been on your radar?
​
As always, our community has been busy exploring new companies and stocks. Here is what has been on its radar in the past week. Click on the logo to go to the company's Stock Card:
Comcast's Stock Card
IBM's Stock Card
Chipotle's Stock Card
Tripadvisor's Stock Card
Target's Stock Card
That's it for this edition of Stock Card Weekly. Don't forget to join our Intelligent Investing Facebook Group for daily investing conversations and research.

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11/12/2017

We are back to the future ... of work!

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Future of Work! Remember that?

If you are an old-timer around here, you know we love to chunk our stock investments into themes. Theme-based investing is a performance-based diversification we pursue to spread our net wide, without sacrificing performance. Traditional diversification strategies segment your portfolio through arbitrary dimensions such as sector or region. Consequently, they sacrifice performance in the name of lower risk. What we do is to pick major themes and trends that are on the rise, and build our portfolio around such. This way, not only we diversify, we also grow faster than the overall market. 

Just before releasing the new version of StockCard.io, we were in the middle of working on the  Future of Work theme. Today, we are picking up where we left! Let's go back to the future... of work! #FutureofWork
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When you hear #FutureofWork, what comes to mind? Digital communications, robots, and artificial intelligence all seem interesting. However, if you peel the onion to its core, there is one centerpiece that will shape how we work in the future. And that is... DATA! 

The volume and speed of data generation is so high that you need to use measurement units that are hard to pronounce such as... GIGABYTE (that's not so hard), PETABYTE (Ok, that's a bit strange), EXABYTE (hmm) ... ZETTABYTE (You made your point! Way too many zeros)... The point is, as the volume of data generation grows astronomically, the demand for data storage grows with it. It's not only the data that's in our excel files or phones. It's our data footprint as we move around, and more importantly the data that the machines generate. That's every little sensor we are placing into everything we own, from our cars to our athletic clothing, to the digital dust we spread around in our manufacturing facilities... they are all getting connected, and sending bits and pieces of information back to the servers every nanosecond... and, they are just getting started... it's not just the 'big data' but also the 'fast data', 'smart data'...data, data, and more data.... When the volume goes as high as it is, you cannot just store it, you need smart and well-designed frameworks and systems to store, use, recover, protect, and refresh... And, that's where we cast our net wide for this edition of Stock Card Weekly...
Western Digital's Stock Card
VMware's Stock Card
Micron's Stock Card
Intel's Stock Card
Pure Storage's Stock Card
Interestingly, as we've been thinking about data storage stocks, you guys have been coming through. Barry W. sent a Stock Card request for Pure Storage. S Gold had Western Digital on the radar. Ted M. and Jiaduo H. were looking at Intel. We at Stock Card HQ had our eye on Micron Technology. The elders of the industry such as NetApp, Dell and VMWare are not giving up their fortresses. A whole army of startups is putting up a fantastic fight to innovate and disrupt the storage market, among which Nutanix IPO'd last year. 

We are not yet done with the data storage theme, I must say. However, we picked up some shares for our portfolio,  and added a few Stock Cards to the watchlist. To find out more, visit their associated Stock Cards by clicking on their logo above or visiting our website.
What's been on your radar?
We've been having fun running the Stock Card engine that collects, vets and summarizes close to 100 data points about each requested stock. The followings are some of Stock card we published during this past week. More to come in the next few days as we continue answering your Stock Card Requests... Click on the logo to go to the company's Stock Card:
Charter Communication's Stock Card
Fire Eye's Stock Card
Roku's Stock Card
MuleSoft's Stock Card
Winabego's Stock Card
That's it for this edition of Stock Card Weekly. Don't forget to join our Intelligent Investing Facebook Group for daily investing conversations and research. As always: submit a Stock Card request for companies on your radar! 

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11/5/2017

Are you an intelligent investor?

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"It's sick! Look at this! I just doubled my money since January, and I don't even know what this thing stands for... Eeee... Teeee... FFFFFF..." Clapping his hands with excitement!

"Pfff, doubled! Bitcoin has been up fivefold since I bought my first coin... you are wasting your time!" She brushed off her hair from her face but kept the grin.
...

The two brag masters turning their heads toward me and wanting me to settle the battle: "Which one is the better investment?"

Waving my hands in the air as a sign to wrap up the conversation: "You are both doing great!" I answered hoping these two leave me alone.  ​
I knew I can't convince either. The crypto-queen is so emotionally vested in the philosophy behind cryptocurrencies I could never bring much logic into the conversation. She has the conviction that cryptocurrencies are the future. She masterfully disregards how far cryptocurrencies have to go before becoming mainstream, and ignores unrealistic valuations in the name of disruption. The ETF guy, on the other hand, is so blissfully innocent. He's read a few articles about passive ETF investing, he loves every title with AI in it and bought a few AI-powered ETFs in January. Markets have been kind to all investors since then. What would you tell them when all they have seen is 'up-we-go'. Everyone has warned them of a bubble, but the bubble never bursts... They are now tuning out any mention of it... Money is real and their gain is just one sell button away! ​
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When every new kid on the block is making money, it's hard to argue the merits of intelligent investing. I cleared my voice and looked at their happy, smiling faces and said: "Look guys! I don't know which one of you is better at investing, and I cannot tell you which one is the better investment, however,  I can give you a small test that will accurately evaluate your investing skills... you take the test and decide for yourself." Here we go"
  • Do you feel you are investing in whatever you choose because you fear that you will miss out on a big opportunity? (Yes / No)
  • Do you have the conviction that your investment decisions are logical, but cannot explain the logic to the next person? (Yes / No)
  • Are you investing the money that you would need for a specific purpose in the next several weeks or months? (Yes / No)
  • If tomorrow you wake up and see you've lost 100% of the money you invested, will you struggle to make ends meet? (Yes / No)

If the answer to any of the above questions is 'yes', you are being foolish and careless... Investing is not about what you are investing in but whether you are aware of the level of risk you are taking ... I can't tell you whether cryptocurrencies are a good investment or not. Neither can I tell you whether you should choose between ETFs and cryptocurrencies... What I can tell you is that there is only one good type of investing and that's the intelligent kind. 
What has been on your radar this week?
Last week we released a new version of StockCard.io to help you in your own intelligent investing process. Have you seen it yet?

We believe in the intelligent way of investing. More precisely: invest based on data, eliminate emotions from decision-making, measure your true performance, and hold on until facts change.... We released the new version of StockCard.io with those goals in mind. Below is a recap of new features and enhancements: 
  • We enhanced Stock Cards with more data. That being said, we kept the simplicity and fun. With Stock Card, investing should never be harder than catching up with the news and reading memes!
  • We introduced 'My Portfolio' so that you can truly track the performance of each and every investment decision you could never do unless you've made custom-made tracking excel files.
  • We added the 'Our Performance' tab so that you can see how we stay true to the insights of Stock Cards and invest our real money accordingly.
  • Also we've made it easier for you to share the stocks that are on your radar and request a Stock Card. Many of you have taken us on that offer and submitted Stock Card requests...

Many of you have taken us on that offer and submitted Stock Card requests... We've been having fun running the Stock Card engine that collects, vets and summarizes close to 100 data points about each requested stock. Many of them have already been published, with more to come in the next few days... Click on the logo to go to the company's Stock Card:

Zillow's Stock Card
Skyworks Stock Card
Yelp's Stock Card
Graham Holdings' Stock Card
Intel's Stock Card
GE's Stock Card
VMware's Stock Card
AMD's Stock Card
Ellie Mae's Stock Card
Red Hat's Stock Card
Applied Genetic's Stock Card
That’s it for this week’s edition of Stock Card Weekly. Make sure to join the conversation on our Facebook Group and bring along a friend or two. The intelligent investing conversation continues every day!

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Disclaimer: StockCard.io is not, neither operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on StockCard.io and Stock Card Weekly represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The Stock Card team may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. In no event shall StockCard.io be liable to any subscriber, visitor, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on StockCard.io, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, StockCard.io or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way.
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